A series of near misses
In the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, August 21st 2007 Hurricane Dean impacted the Northern districts of Corozal and Orange Walk and the islands of Ambergris Caye and Caye Caulker.  The evil eye of the hurricane did not pass over Belize.  It passed over an area of Mexico called Majahual.  But hurricane force winds ripped through Corozal and perhaps parts of Orange Walk.  Though the official estimate of the economic damage done to Belize by Hurricane Dean is estimated at around one hundred million Belize dollars, still, it must be admitted, that with hurricane force conditions affecting Northern Belize, the country had braced for deeper devastation. Fortunately, no lives were lost.
Of the approximately 36,000 persons resident in the Corozal district, about 5,000 were registered in hurricane shelters.   Of a population of about 45,000 in the Orange Walk District, about 1,500 were registered in shelters. About 9,500 persons including tourists were evacuated from San Pedro, Ambergris Caye.  The Cayo district, including Belmopan City, San Ignacio-Santa Elena and Benque Viejo del Carmen, recorded about 10,000 persons in shelters.
Many Belizeans prepare for and react to a hurricane in much the same way they treat their personal health.  They will, for example, ignore dietary prohibitions and good health tips and even when ill health threatens will be reluctant to see a doctor.  At the start of every hurricane season, the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) and the Belize Red Cross run television and radio advertisements advising the public about the start of the hurricane season, the need for a family plan and other hurricane safety tips.  As is the case with their personal health, many people ignore these precautions until the last minute.  Since 1998, Mitch, Iris, Chantal and Dean have done damage to Belize.  But, against the backdrop of what a hurricane can do, they can be catalogued as a series of near misses.  With two generations of Belizeans being removed from the devastation of Hurricane Hattie, and a series of near misses, it will be difficult to avoid the creeping complacency that will set in.
Brainwash the children <>Perhaps one of the best ways of combating public complacency in the face of hurricanes is through the children.  Ever notice how children of today are conscious of the hazards of smoking and of the need for preserving the environment?  Clearly a culture has arisen of inculcating the hazards of smoking and environmental degradation in the minds of children.  It might therefore be worthwhile to consider developing a hurricane awareness educational tool - in video for schools that have audio/visual facilities - that is imparted annually to all primary school students at the start of each hurricane.  The idea is to "brainwash" children to develop serious concern about what a hurricane can do so that they influence their parents, in the special way that children can, to take basic precautions well ahead of time.  This would also develop a new generation of hurricane-conscious Belizeans. 
Shelters but no wardens
Belize can be threatened by a serious hurricane in any given year.  It will take some time to get the stock of certifiable hurricane shelters up to where they need to be.  There are quite a number of formidable buildings in Belize City and throughout Belize that are owned by the private sector, Churches and other non-government bodies.  As an interim measure, until the stock of public shelters is improved and increased, the Government should identify a number of these structures in each district. It should reach agreement with the owners that, in the event of a serious hurricane, and after all the public shelters have been filled up, these buildings would also be used as shelters and manned by security personnel.  Some kind of indemnity against damage to property would have to be provided.  When the monster hurricane Mitch threatened Belize City in 1998, a few business houses in Belize City had called in to make their businesses available as hurricane shelters.  
During the threat of hurricanes Mitch in 1998, Chantal in 2001 and Dean in 2007 there was one glaring and recurring breakdown in operations as it related to shelters.  Many public officers designated to open and operate shelters failed to show up to carry out their duties.  There is always a last minute scramble to address this.  This is clearly not a reliable formula for the effective operation of shelters.  It should not be relied upon anymore.  There are volunteer elements of the Belize Defence Force in every district of Belize.  Serious thought should be given to transferring the task of opening and managing shelters to the volunteer element of the BDF.
A question of command and control
But this leads to a more fundamental issue.  While the National Emergency Management Organization in Belmopan City looks like an emergency management organization and functions like one, the same cannot be said of the District Emergency Management Organizations.  This is no disrespect to the members of the DEMOs who are committed, hard-working and experienced persons.  But their district offices, which are the command and control centers for each district in the event of a national emergency, are poorly equipped and fail to inspire any kind of public confidence.  There is a simple solution to this.  There are BDF bases in each of the six districts of Belize.  Every single one of these bases is better equipped and better organized than the DEMOs.  Every time there is a threat of hurricane, BDF personnel are deployed with radios, communication and logistical equipment to the DEMO offices. 
Rather than spending a small fortune upgrading the DEMOs to become offices that bear some resemblance to command and control centers, the BDF bases should simply house the DEMOs in each district (except perhaps in the Cayo district).  In comparison to what would have to be spent to upgrade and equip DEMOs, only a small fraction would have to be spent on the bases to enable them to effectively assume greater responsibility.  There are other pluses to this.  Army bases are inherently command and control centers.  They inspire greater public confidence and trust.   Spending money on properly equipping DEMOs would be duplicating resources that already substantially exist at the various BDF bases.  The money could be better spent on hurricane shelters.  In the chaotic aftermath of a disaster, DEMOs operating out of army bases would tend to instill greater discipline, order and authority.  This leads to a further point.
Managing people through the evacuation and shelter phases of a hurricane is a different thing than managing people in a disaster zone after a hurricane has struck.  A person might know the hurricane manual and procedures like the back of his hand and lead ably during the pre-strike phases of a hurricane. But it requires a person with a special make-up to be competent and effective, calm and fair, authoritative and credible all at the same time in the epicenter of chaos.   We can't have a Mr. Jim Jan Mohammed in each district.  But in the structure and configuration of DEMOs this point must clearly be borne in mind.  The sooner these and other points are addressed the better. Belize's streak of Houdini-like escapes might fast be running out. Read More

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